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ECMWF模式对东北半球气象要素场 预报能力的检验
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陕西省气象局科技创新基金2012M-37,陕西省气象局“火车头计划”数值模式应用团队,陕西省气象局预报员专项2012Y-6


Forecast Performance Verification of the ECMWF Model over the Northeast Hemisphere
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    摘要:

    利用ECMWF模式逐日分析场(0场)序列和7 d预报场序列,使用气候学方法客观检验ECMWF模式对东北半球的预报能力,主要结果如下:1)模式对不同要素场的预报能力呈现出明显的季节性差异,夏季特别是7月预报能力最弱.2)总体来说,850 hPa温度场、500 hPa高度场与0场相关最好,850 hPa湿度场与0场相关最弱;随着预报时效的增加,预报能力总体减弱.3)大陆上温度场预报总体较0场偏高,而在赤道低纬地区偏低,模式对赤道附近温度场变率预报能力弱于中高纬地区,这一特征在其它要素预报中也有不同程度的体现.4)500 hPa位势高度预报场与0场的差值表现出清楚的起源于里海并向东北传播经贝加尔湖、鄂霍次克海转向东南至日本东部海域的波列,这一现象在500 hPa风场差值图中也有清楚的表现.5)纬向风预报能力强于经向风,30°N附近存在纬向风与0场相关系数高值带.6)总体来说,模式对高层的预报能力优于低层,但模式对700 hPa风场的预报存在显著差异.

    Abstract:

    Using climatological methods, the forecast performance of the ECMWF model over the Northeast Hemisphere is discussed through analytic comparison between the ECMWF daily analysis and its seven-day forecast products. The results show that: 1) the time series verification indicates that the ECMWF’s daily forecast exhibits a seasonal trend, that is the forecast performance for summer was worse than those for the other seasons and the forecast accuracy decreased to its minimum in July. 2) The prediction ability differed among the various meteorological fields. In general, the analysis showed good correlation with the seven-day forecast 850-hPa temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height while the correlation with the 850-hPa relative humidity was poor. The forecast bias increased with extended prediction time. 3) The seven-day forecast temperature was higher than the ECMWF analysis over the land and lower over the tropical area; the forecast performance over the nearby area of the equator was weaker than over the higher latitude region, showing similar behavior to some degree in other meteorological prediction fields. 4) There was a remarkable OKJ wave chain in the 500-hPa geopotential height or a 500-hPa wind difference between the seven-day forecast and the analysis. 5) The zonal wind forecast was better than the meridional wind forecast field, and showed a high correlation with the analysis near 30°N. 6) Overall, the ECMWF model has better forecasting capability at the high level fields than at the lower level ones, with the exception of the 700-hPa wind fields.

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潘留杰,张宏芳,朱伟军,王楠,王建鹏.2013. ECMWF模式对东北半球气象要素场 预报能力的检验[J].气候与环境研究,18(1):111-123. PAN Liujie, ZHANG Hongfang, ZHU Weijun, WANG Nan, WANG Jianpeng.2013. Forecast Performance Verification of the ECMWF Model over the Northeast Hemisphere[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],18(1):111-123.

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  • 收稿日期:2011-06-25
  • 最后修改日期:2012-09-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-02-01
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