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CMIP6多模式对21世纪中亚极端降水未来变化预估
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作者单位:

1.中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室;2.西北农林科技大学资源环境学院

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基金项目:

省自然科学基金,国家自然科学基金,国家重点基础研究规划项目


CMIP6 Model-Projected Extreme precipitation over Central Asia in the 21st century
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Affiliation:

Key Laboratory of Regional Climate–Environment Research for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    气候变暖导致近几十年中亚地区极端降水事件趋多趋强,严重影响了当地社会经济发展和农业生产。本文基于最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6)14个耦合模式的数值模拟结果,预估研究了中等强迫情景(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫情景(SSP5-8.5)两种共享社会经济路径下21世纪中后期中亚极端降水事件的时空分布特征及其与区域气候增暖之间的关系。结果显示,大多数CMIP6模式基本能够模拟出历史观测降水气候态(1979~2018年)的空间分布特征,但在中亚西南及东南部偏干,北部及中南部偏湿。与历史基准期(1981~2010年)相比,21世纪末期(2071~2100年)中亚强降水强度在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下分别增加0.54 mm/10a和2.4 mm/10a,而强降水发生频率则分别增加了5~7%和6~10%,尤其是中南部高海拔山区增加的幅度更大。预估结果的信噪比显示,天山以北的中亚东北部区域的极端降水强度及其发生频率的预估结果具有更高的可信度。气候变暖对未来中亚极端降水事件的发生频次具有明显的调控作用,当气温每升高1K时,极端强降水事件的发生频次分别增加约7天和9天,而最大连续无降水日数则分别增加了3天和6天。

    Abstract:

    Climate warming has led to more frequent and stronger extreme precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) in recent decades, which has seriously affected local socio-economic development and agricultural production. Based on the numerical simulations provided by the latest 14 coupled models of the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study predicts and studies the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation over CA and its relationship with regional climate warming in the middle and late 21st century under two shared socio-economic paths (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that most CMIP6 models can basically simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of observed precipitation climate states for 1979-2018, but the model simulations underestimate the observations in the southwest and southeast of CA, and overestimate the observations in the north and Central South of CA. Compared with the historical period (1981-2010), the precipitation intensity at the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) increased by 0.54 mm/10a and 2.4 mm/10a under the scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively, while the frequency of extreme precipitation events increased by 5-7% and 6-10% respectively, especially in the high-altitude mountains in central and southern regions. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the predicted precipitation intensity and frequency in northeast Central Asia to the north of The Tianshan Mountains is more reliable. Climate warming has an obvious regulatory effect on the frequency of extreme precipitation events in CA in the future. For the temperature rises by 1K, the frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events increased by about 7and 9 days, while the maximum continuous dry days increased by 3 and 6 days, respectively.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-14
  • 最后修改日期:2022-07-11
  • 录用日期:2022-08-05
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-22
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