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CMIP6模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟能力评估及未来预估
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1.中国科学院大气物理研究所;2.中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心

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Evaluation and projection of the Eurasian winter snow water equivalent based on CMIP6 Coupled Models
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1.Institute of Amospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre

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    摘要:

    基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式模拟数据和欧洲宇航局GlobSnow卫星遥感雪水当量(SWE)资料,评估了CMIP6耦合模式对 1981~2014 年欧亚大陆冬季SWE的模拟能力,并应用多模式集合平均结果预估了 21 世纪欧亚大陆SWE的变化情况。结果表明,CMIP6耦合模式对冬季欧亚大陆中高纬SWE空间分布具有较好的再现能力,能模拟出欧亚大陆中高纬SWE的主要分布特征;耦合模式对SWE变化趋势及EOF 主要模态特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,但多模式集合能提高模式对SWE变化趋势和主要时空变化特征的模拟能力;此外,多模式集合结果对欧亚大陆冬季SWE与降水、气温的关系也有较好的再现能力。预估结果表明,21世纪欧亚大陆东北大部分地区的SWE均要高于基准期(1995?2014年),而90°E以西的欧洲大陆SWE基本上呈现减少的特征; 21世纪早期,四种不同排放情景下积雪变化的差异不大,但21世纪后期积雪变化的幅度差异较大,而且排放越高积雪变化的幅度越大,模式不确定性也越大;进一步的分析表明,欧亚大陆冬季未来积雪变化特征的空间分布与全球变化背景下局地气温、降水的变化密切相关,高温高湿的条件有利于欧亚大陆东北部积雪的增多。

    Abstract:

    Historical simulation outputs of climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) together with the GlobSnow monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) products were used to evaluate the model performance in simulating the Eurasian SWE of winter. Most models can relatively well reproduce the basic features of the climatological Eurasian winter SWE. There are great differences in different models for the trend of SWE, but the multi-model ensemble (MME) can improve the simulation ability. The spatial and temporal characteristics of winter SWE from CMIP6 model simulations and observations were analyzed using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, and the results suggested that only a small number of CMIP6 models could reproduce main features of the first eigenvector, but MME can improve the performance. Furthermore, MME can also reproduce the response of Eurasian SWE to precipitation and surface air temperature during winter. The projection of Eurasian winter SWE in the 21st century was estimated by using the CMIP6 MME results under different emission scenarios of Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). With respect to the reference period 1995?2014, projections of SWE by the MME under four scenarios (SSP126, ssp245, ssp370 and ssp585) all shown increasing trend in the northeastern Eurasia continent and decreasing trend in continental Europe to the west of 90°E. There was little difference in SWE change under four SSPs in the early 21st Century. But the difference became larger in the late 21st century. The amplitudes of SWE changes would become larger with time. Further analysis shows that the higher temperature and increased precipitation were conductive to the SWE increase in the northeastern Eurasia.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-01-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-07-18
  • 录用日期:2023-08-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-28
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