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On the Predictand of Short-Term Climate Prediction
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    Abstract:

    Based on the physical-mathematical considerations, the authors discussed the object of the short-term climate prediction. The short-term climate prediction has extremely important potential benefit for the economy and society, but is a very difficult scientific systematic work. Traditionally, the anomaly of a variable to its climatology has been used as the object of the shortterm climate prediction. However, this approach does not necessarily contain physical-mathematical robustness. Considering that the current climate prediction skill, based on the above approach, is quite limited, the authors proposed another approach, using the interannual increment of a variable as the predicting object. The authors also provides discussion on this approach from the physical-mathematical considerations, and validation of this approach based on a climate model prediction experiment.

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王会军,张颖,郎咸梅.2010.论短期气候预测的对象问题[J].气候与环境研究,15(3):225-228. WANG Huijun, ZHANG Ying, LANG Xianmei.2010. On the Predictand of Short-Term Climate Prediction[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],15(3):225-228.

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  • Received:
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  • Online: December 01,2011
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