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CN 11-3693/P

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Interannual Variability and Key Influencing Factors of Drought in China over the Past 120 Years
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Affiliation:

1.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

Innovation Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number: 42221004)

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    Abstract:

    Based on datasets of three drought indices (i.e., the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI-12, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI-12, and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, scPDSI) for the period 1901~2020, this study investigates the long-term characteristics of drought in China over the past 120 years and then explores reasons for their inconsistency. Results indicate a significant drying trend in southwestern China, the Loess Plateau, southern Northeast China, and southern Xinjiang, while regions with significant wetting trends are located in North China, the east part of Northwest China, and the north part of Northeast. As far as drought events are concerned, both Northeast China and Northwest China are characterized by prolonged duration and higher intensity, but the drought tends to decrease in general, especially in eastern Northwest China and northern Northeast China. On the contrary, the duration and intensity of drought events increased in southern Northeast China. There are approximately 2820000km2 of land area each year that has experienced drought, and among them about 30500 km2 of land areas are threatened by extreme drought. Drought severity increases with time, with rapid growth after the mid-1990s. During the past 120 years, drought area exhibits significant interannual and decadal variabilities, with the main periods of 2~3 years and 18~22 years, respectively. In humid regions, three drought indices show good consistency, while in semi-arid and arid regions, their consistency is relatively low. In humid areas, the wet-dry variation is dominated by precipitation. In semi-arid and arid areas, besides precipitation, both temperature anomaly and soil characteristics also play an important role in drought. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the drought index selection over arid and semi-arid areas in the context of global warming.

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History
  • Received:November 08,2023
  • Revised:December 31,2023
  • Adopted:February 01,2024
  • Online: May 10,2024
  • Published: