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Inter-decadal Changes in Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity and Possible Causes
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Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of the Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;3. Henan Province Climate Center, Zhengzhou 450003;4. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225;5. Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433;6. School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars (Grant 41522502), National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant GASI-IPOVAI-06), and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China Grant 2015BAC03B07 National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars (Grant 41522502), National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant GASI-IPOVAI-06), and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant 2015BAC03B07)

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    Abstract:

    Inter-decadal changes in potential predictability of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) intensity has been investigated using the signal to noise ratio method and based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity underwent a significant decadal change from a low potential predictability to a high potential predictability in the 1980s, followed by a decreasing trend in the early 2000s. Further analysis shows that the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature (SST) of the East Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific (EIOWP). The EIOWP area averaged SST with a high (low) phase of its inter-annual variability would have strong (weak) influence on the SCSSM and hence enhance (weaken) the SCSSM signal. As a result, the potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity tends to be high (low).

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李娇,丁瑞强,吴志伟,秦箭煌,李保生.2019.南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化及可能原因[J].气候与环境研究,24(3):302-312. LI Jiao, DING Ruiqiang, WU Zhiwei, QIN Jianhuang, LI Baosheng.2019. Inter-decadal Changes in Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity and Possible Causes[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],24(3):302-312.

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History
  • Received:January 08,2018
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 04,2019
  • Published: