Bimonthly

ISSN 1006-9585

CN 11-3693/P

+Advanced Search 中文版
A Method for Prediction of Daily Maximum Electric Loads in the Summer in Beijing Based on the BP Neural Network
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
    Abstract:

    Based on daily maximum electric loads and meteorological data in the summer (June-August) from 2006 to 2017 in Beijing, the relationship between electric load and meteorological factors is diagnosed. Using the BP (Back Propagation) neural network algorithm, two maximum electric power load prediction models are established and evaluated. The results indicate that (1) the basic electric load on weekends in Beijing in the summer is much less than that in working days, which should be distinguished when being removed; (2) the influence of meteorological factors on meteorological load has cumulative effect, and the correlation between them is the highest for two days of accumulation; (3) taking the actual situation into account, two different daily maximum electric load forecasting models are established based on different independent variables. Comparing the prediction results with actual data, both of the forecasting models show good prediction performance that can meet the actual demand of the power sector. The forecasting model with meteorological load of the previous day as an independent variable shows better prediction effect.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

李琛,郭文利,吴进,金晨曦.2019.基于BP神经网络的北京夏季日最大电力负荷预测方法[J].气候与环境研究,24(1):135-142. LI Chen, GUO Wenli, WU Jin, JIN Chenxi.2019. A Method for Prediction of Daily Maximum Electric Loads in the Summer in Beijing Based on the BP Neural Network[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese],24(1):135-142.

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:August 18,2017
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: January 26,2019
  • Published: